Tag Archives: Rick Santorum

Sarah Palin Could Win The 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination

A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math

by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com

If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?

The first, very, very important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings as seen below:

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The GOP Stalinists Invade Upstate New York

The GOP have gotten into a tangled mess with the ultra-conservative fringe battling the more moderate centerists for control of the Republican Party.

The GOP is in a tangled mess with the ultra-conservative fringe lead by Sarah Palin battling the more moderate centerists for control of the Republican Party.

Barack Obama‘s most devilish political move since the 2008 campaign was to appoint a Republican congressman from upstate New York as secretary of the Army. This week’s election to fill that vacant seat has set off nothing less than a riotous and bloody national G.O.P. civil war. No matter what the results in that race on Tuesday, the Republicans are the sure losers. This could be a gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats through 2010, and perhaps beyond.

The governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia were once billed as the marquee events of Election Day 2009 — a referendum on the Obama presidency and a possible Republican “comeback.” But preposterous as it sounds, the real action migrated to New York’s 23rd, a rural Congressional district abutting Canada. That this pastoral setting could become a G.O.P. killing field, attracting an all-star cast of combatants led by Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, William Kristol and Newt Gingrich, is a premise out of a Depression-era screwball comedy. But such farces have become the norm for the conservative movement — whether the participants are dressing up in full “tea party” drag or not.

The battle for upstate New York confirms just how swiftly the right has devolved into a wacky, paranoid cult that is as eager to eat its own as it is to destroy Obama. The movement’s undisputed leaders, Palin and Beck, neither of whom has what Palin once called the “actual responsibilities” of public office, would gladly see the Republican Party die on the cross of right-wing ideological purity. Over the short term, at least, their wish could come true.

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Huckabee Beats Palin in Straw Poll at Values Voter Summit

Sarah Palin didn’t do herself any favors with conservative Christian voters by not accepting their speaking invitation this weekend, judging by the results of a Republican presidential straw poll at a Washington confab for political activists.

It was former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who creamed the competition in the highly unscientific contest, which was conducted at the two-day Values Voter Summit, sponsored by the Family Research Group.

Huckabee, who has been hosting a talk show on Fox News, garnered 28.4% of nearly 600 votes cast. With 12% of the vote, Palin was in a virtual tie for second with three others — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney,  Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.

Was Huckabee’s victory a surprise? Not really, said Family Research Council head Tony Perkins. After all, unlike Palin, he showed up Friday and gave a warmly received speech. Plus, evangelicals who mistrusted his record as a fiscal conservative and felt he lacked foreign policy experience feel that he’s made strides in both areas, Perkins said.

Palin’s poor showing said Perkins, was probably due to “people questioning the decisions she’s made lately. And she wasn’t here. You’re not going to get support here just based on your reputation.”

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