A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com
If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?
The first, very, very important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings as seen below:
Posted in 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged FiveThirtyEight.com, Haley Barbour, John McCain, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Pat Robertson, Rasmussen poll, Republican primary, Rick Santorum, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin 2012, SarahPAC, Scott Brown
Sarah Palin vs. Pit Bull
At last the American right and left have one issue they unequivocally agree on: You don’t actually have to read Sarah Palin’s book to have an opinion about it. Last Sunday Liz Cheney praised “Going Rogue” as “well-written” on Fox News even though, by her own account, she had sampled only “parts” of it. On Tuesday, Ana Marie Cox, a correspondent for Air America, belittled the book in The Washington Post while confessing that she couldn’t claim to have “completely” read it.
“Going Rogue” will hardly be the first best seller embraced by millions for talismanic rather than literary ends. And I am not recommending that others follow my example and slog through its 400-plus pages, especially since its supposed revelations have been picked through 24/7 for a week. But sometimes I wonder if anyone has read all of what Palin would call the “dang” thing. Some of the book’s most illuminating tics have been mentioned barely — if at all — by either its fans or foes. Palin is far and away the most important brand in American politics after Barack Obama, and attention must be paid. Those who wishfully think her 15 minutes are up are deluding themselves.
The book’s biggest surprise is Palin’s wide-eyed infatuation with show-business celebrities. You get nearly as much face time with Tina Fey and the cast of “Saturday Night Live” in “Going Rogue” as you do with John McCain. We learn how happy Palin was to receive calls from Bono and Warren Beatty “to share ideas and insights.” We wade through star-struck lists of campaign cameos by Robert Duvall, Jon Voight (who “blew us away”), Naomi Judd, Gary Sinise and Kelsey Grammer, among many others. Then there are the acknowledgments at the book’s end, where Palin reveals that her intimacy with media stars is such that she can air-kiss them on a first-name basis, from Greta to Laura to Rush.
Posted in Sarah Palin Going Rogue: An American Life
Tagged Air America, Alaska, Ana Marie Cox, Barack Obama, Barbara Walters Sarah Palin, Bob McDonnell, Bono, Bridge to Nowhere, conservatives, death panels, Dick Cheney, Fox News, Gary Sinise, Glenn Beck, Going Rogue, GOP, Greta Van Susteren, Jewish settlements Sarah Palin, John Boehner, John McCain, Jon Voight, Katie Couric, Kelsey Grammer, Levi Johnston, Liz Cheney, Lynn Vincent, Matthew Continetti, McCain-Palin, McCain-Palin campaign, Michael Steele, Mike Huckabee, Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, Naomi Judd, Neocons, pallin' around with terrorists, Pat Robertson, Persecution of Sarah Palin, Peter Wehner, Republican convention, Rich Lowry, Robert Duvall, Ronald Reagan, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin Down syndrome, Sarah Palin Going Rogue, Sarah Palin Going Rogue: An American Life, Saturday Night Live, Saturday Night Live Sarah Palin, Thanks But No Thanks, The Washington Post, The Weekly Standard, Tim Pawlenty, Tina Fey, Warren Beatty, Wasilla, William Jennings Bryan, William Kristol
The GOP is in a tangled mess with the ultra-conservative fringe lead by Sarah Palin battling the more moderate centerists for control of the Republican Party.
Barack Obama‘s most devilish political move since the 2008 campaign was to appoint a Republican congressman from upstate New York as secretary of the Army. This week’s election to fill that vacant seat has set off nothing less than a riotous and bloody national G.O.P. civil war. No matter what the results in that race on Tuesday, the Republicans are the sure losers. This could be a gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats through 2010, and perhaps beyond.
The governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia were once billed as the marquee events of Election Day 2009 — a referendum on the Obama presidency and a possible Republican “comeback.” But preposterous as it sounds, the real action migrated to New York’s 23rd, a rural Congressional district abutting Canada. That this pastoral setting could become a G.O.P. killing field, attracting an all-star cast of combatants led by Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, William Kristol and Newt Gingrich, is a premise out of a Depression-era screwball comedy. But such farces have become the norm for the conservative movement — whether the participants are dressing up in full “tea party” drag or not.
The battle for upstate New York confirms just how swiftly the right has devolved into a wacky, paranoid cult that is as eager to eat its own as it is to destroy Obama. The movement’s undisputed leaders, Palin and Beck, neither of whom has what Palin once called the “actual responsibilities” of public office, would gladly see the Republican Party die on the cross of right-wing ideological purity. Over the short term, at least, their wish could come true.
Posted in Op-Ed, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged Afghanistan, Arlen Specter, Barack Obama, Bill Kristol, Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Dede Scozzafava, Dick Armey, Doug Hoffman, Fox News, Fred Thompson, Glenn Beck, GOP, Hamid Karzai, John Birch Society, John Boehner, Kay Bailey Hutchison, McCain-Palin, Michael Steele, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Pat Buchanan, Pat Robertson, Pavlovian, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Robert Casey, Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, Tim Pawlenty, William Kristol