A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com
If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?
The first, very, very important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings as seen below:
Posted in 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged FiveThirtyEight.com, Haley Barbour, John McCain, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Pat Robertson, Rasmussen poll, Republican primary, Rick Santorum, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin 2012, SarahPAC, Scott Brown
Sarah Palin didn’t do herself any favors with conservative Christian voters by not accepting their speaking invitation this weekend, judging by the results of a Republican presidential straw poll at a Washington confab for political activists.
It was former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who creamed the competition in the highly unscientific contest, which was conducted at the two-day Values Voter Summit, sponsored by the Family Research Group.
Huckabee, who has been hosting a talk show on Fox News, garnered 28.4% of nearly 600 votes cast. With 12% of the vote, Palin was in a virtual tie for second with three others — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.
Was Huckabee’s victory a surprise? Not really, said Family Research Council head Tony Perkins. After all, unlike Palin, he showed up Friday and gave a warmly received speech. Plus, evangelicals who mistrusted his record as a fiscal conservative and felt he lacked foreign policy experience feel that he’s made strides in both areas, Perkins said.
Palin’s poor showing said Perkins, was probably due to “people questioning the decisions she’s made lately. And she wasn’t here. You’re not going to get support here just based on your reputation.”
Posted in 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged Abortion, Arkansas, Bobby Jindal, Christian voters, conservative Christian, conservative Christian voters, embryonic stem cell, Evangelicals, Family Research Group, Fiscal Conservative, Fox News, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Palin straw poll, religious liberty, Republican, Republican straw poll, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, same-sex marriage, Sarah Palin, school prayer, stem cell research, straw poll, Tim Pawlenty, Tony Perkins, Values Voter Summit