A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com
If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?
The first, very, very important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings as seen below:
Posted in 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged FiveThirtyEight.com, Haley Barbour, John McCain, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Pat Robertson, Rasmussen poll, Republican primary, Rick Santorum, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin 2012, SarahPAC, Scott Brown
Sarah Palin vs. Pit Bull
At last the American right and left have one issue they unequivocally agree on: You don’t actually have to read Sarah Palin’s book to have an opinion about it. Last Sunday Liz Cheney praised “Going Rogue” as “well-written” on Fox News even though, by her own account, she had sampled only “parts” of it. On Tuesday, Ana Marie Cox, a correspondent for Air America, belittled the book in The Washington Post while confessing that she couldn’t claim to have “completely” read it.
“Going Rogue” will hardly be the first best seller embraced by millions for talismanic rather than literary ends. And I am not recommending that others follow my example and slog through its 400-plus pages, especially since its supposed revelations have been picked through 24/7 for a week. But sometimes I wonder if anyone has read all of what Palin would call the “dang” thing. Some of the book’s most illuminating tics have been mentioned barely — if at all — by either its fans or foes. Palin is far and away the most important brand in American politics after Barack Obama, and attention must be paid. Those who wishfully think her 15 minutes are up are deluding themselves.
The book’s biggest surprise is Palin’s wide-eyed infatuation with show-business celebrities. You get nearly as much face time with Tina Fey and the cast of “Saturday Night Live” in “Going Rogue” as you do with John McCain. We learn how happy Palin was to receive calls from Bono and Warren Beatty “to share ideas and insights.” We wade through star-struck lists of campaign cameos by Robert Duvall, Jon Voight (who “blew us away”), Naomi Judd, Gary Sinise and Kelsey Grammer, among many others. Then there are the acknowledgments at the book’s end, where Palin reveals that her intimacy with media stars is such that she can air-kiss them on a first-name basis, from Greta to Laura to Rush.
Posted in Sarah Palin Going Rogue: An American Life
Tagged Air America, Alaska, Ana Marie Cox, Barack Obama, Barbara Walters Sarah Palin, Bob McDonnell, Bono, Bridge to Nowhere, conservatives, death panels, Dick Cheney, Fox News, Gary Sinise, Glenn Beck, Going Rogue, GOP, Greta Van Susteren, Jewish settlements Sarah Palin, John Boehner, John McCain, Jon Voight, Katie Couric, Kelsey Grammer, Levi Johnston, Liz Cheney, Lynn Vincent, Matthew Continetti, McCain-Palin, McCain-Palin campaign, Michael Steele, Mike Huckabee, Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, Naomi Judd, Neocons, pallin' around with terrorists, Pat Robertson, Persecution of Sarah Palin, Peter Wehner, Republican convention, Rich Lowry, Robert Duvall, Ronald Reagan, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin Down syndrome, Sarah Palin Going Rogue, Sarah Palin Going Rogue: An American Life, Saturday Night Live, Saturday Night Live Sarah Palin, Thanks But No Thanks, The Washington Post, The Weekly Standard, Tim Pawlenty, Tina Fey, Warren Beatty, Wasilla, William Jennings Bryan, William Kristol
…or so, at least, I predict. And I’m putting my money–and stomach–where my keyboard is, as Nate and I made a two-part bet. We wagered a steak dinner on whether or not Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination, me betting she doesn’t. We have a second wager on whether she wins the nomination, with me giving Nate 3:1 odds on a cash bet of undisclosed amount that she doesn’t. (The second bet is not conditional on the first: If Palin doesn’t run at all, I win the steak and the cash.)
Posted in 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged 2012 Presidential Campaign, 2012 Presidential Race, 2012 Republican nomination, Barack Obama, David Mayhew, Evangelical Christians, FiveThirtyEight.com, GOP, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Rasmussen poll, Republican nomination, Sarah Palin, Tom Schaller
Doug Hoffman (C), Bill Owens (D) and Dede Scozzafava (R) are battling for upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
So Sarah Palin has endorsed a right-wing candidate, Doug Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party line for a House seat in Upstate New York, rebuking a moderate Republican in a forthcoming special election. And while it’s true that Palin’s politics probably mesh better with Hoffman’s, strategically, I have to wonder: What is she thinking?
Since resigning as governor of Alaska in early July, Sarah Palin has used the social networking tool Facebook almost exclusively to convey her thoughts on the issues of the day to her supporters and the media.
The latest missive came late Saturday night when Palin penned a note on Facebook on the passage of President Obama‘s health care bill through the Senate Finance Committee.
“Those driving this plan no doubt have good intentions, but good intentions aren’t enough,” wrote Palin. She added that the fact that the specifics of the bill would be worked out behind closed doors was inconsistent with the sort of transparency Obama had advocated during the campaign. “All of this certainly gives the appearance of politics-as-usual in Washington with no change in sight,” Palin wrote.
Sarah Palin resigned as governor of Alaska, effective July 26, 2009, eighteen months prior to the completion of her first term.
When Sarah Palin resigned as governor of Alaska last summer, it seemed she was finally taking the advice of many political professionals and retreating from the spotlight to rebuild her brand and find her message. With the exception of a closed-to-the-press speech last month in Hong Kong, she has not been seen in public. Palin has turned down interviews and declined to appear at GOP party events. Aside from the occasional op-ed, like this one published last week by National Review, and messages posted on her Facebook page, Palin has been laying low, no doubt preparing for what will unquestionably be a major publicity push when her autobiography, Going Rogue, is released next month. But has her time away from the cameras actually done Palin any good politically?
Posted in Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged Alaska, Barack Obama, Going Rogue, Going Rogue: An American Life, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rasmussen Reports, Republican National Convention, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin book, Sarah Palin Facebook, Sarah Palin Gallup poll, Sarah Palin Going Rogue, Sarah Palin Hong Kong, Sarah Palin memoir, Sarah Palin National Review, Tim Pawlenty
Sarah Palin notably absent from gubernatorial races
Sarah Palin stands ready to stump for Republican gubernatorial candidates, but neither Chris Christie nor Bob McDonnell seems to want her help.
Sarah Palin stands ready to stump for the Republican gubernatorial candidates running in the two most closely-watched campaigns in the country this fall, but neither seems to want her help.
Less than a month before voters go to the polls, it appears increasingly clear that the former Alaska governor, vice-presidential nominee and conservative favorite will not appear on behalf of either New Jersey’s Chris Christie or Virginia’s Bob McDonnell.
Palin is the only one of the most talked-about potential 2012 presidential candidates who has not yet campaigned for either Republican candidate.
Given her loyal following among many in the party’s grassroots, it’s Palin who could surely draw the largest crowd and perhaps raise the most money for the two candidates—her book, “Going Rogue,” is already the number-one bestseller on Amazon, over a month before it’s even released.
“The governor offered her assistance with both races,” said Palin adviser Meg Stapleton. “The ball is in their court.”
Neither GOP campaign wanted to discuss why they didn’t want Palin in the state—to say so would offend the conservative base that both Christie and McDonnell are counting on, not just to vote for them but to also volunteer time in the crucial final weeks of the election.
Posted in 2012 Presidential Race, Sarah Palin - Private Citizen
Tagged 2012 Election, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bob McDonnell, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Chris LaCivita, conservatives, Dick Cheney, Going Rogue, GOP, GOP campaign, Gubernatorial Race, Hillary Clinton, Jim Jordan, Jon Corzine, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Larry Sabato, Maria Comella, Mary Sue Terry, Meg Stapleton, Michael Steele, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Jersey, President Obama, Republican strategist, Republicans, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Tucker Martin, Virginia