New Hays Poll Shows Palin Popularity Dropped in Alaska during Final Months

Bear in Twilight, Alaska

A new poll from Hays Research (See Full Poll Below) taken earlier this week (post-resignation) shows the same kind of polarizing division that’s been seen recently in national polls about Palin. It shows an erosion of Palin’s positives and something of a surge in “very negative” perceptions of Palin since Hays polled in May.

Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?

Very positive 30%
Somewhat positive 16.8%
Somewhat negative 16.2 %
Very negative 31.2 %
No opinion 4.5 %
Don’t know the person 1.2%

Total positives: 46.8%
Total negatives: 47.5%

At this time last year, Hays showed Palin with 80% total favorables and only 16% unfavorable.

Here’s how it compares with a similar poll on May 5:

Very positive 30.5%
Somewhat positive 23.5%
Somewhat negative 16.8 %
Very negative 24.8%
Don’t know/refused 4.5%

Total positives: 54%
Total negatives: 41.6%

The latest poll was taken July 29-30 of 400 Alaskans, from “a computer generated random list derived from a database of all households within the State of Alaska with working telephone numbers who have at least one member who has voted in at least two of the last four local or state elections.” Margin of error: about 5%. As we’ve noted before, Hays’ 400-person sample is smaller than some Alaska polls, but has been the same size since Hays started measuring Palin’s popularity early in Palin’s term. All the past Hays polls are here.

Hays also asked about Gov. Sean Parnell. His positives are very high, negatives very low and more than 25 percent either have no opinion or don’t know who he is.

Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sean Parnell? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?

Very positive 26%
Somewhat positive 40.5%
Somewhat negative 5.5%
Very negative 2.2%
No opinion 18%
Don’t know the person 7.8

David Hulen
Anchorage Daily News

Alaska

Alaska Statewide ‘Opinion Counts’ Survey Results

Survey conducted 7/29/09-7/30/09

Hays Research has chosen a selection of questions from a scientific survey conducted in the State of Alaska on July 29th-30th, 2009 to release to the public.  Every month Hays Research Group conducts an omnibus telephone survey called ‘Opinion Counts’ which enables our customers to purchase individual questions in the survey. Statewide surveys are conducted monthly as well as surveys within the Municipality of Anchorage in the months leading up to the Municipal election.

Survey Methodology

This survey was fielded on July 29th-30th, 2009 as part of the Hays Research Group Statewide Opinion Counts Survey. 400 completed respondents were interviewed The margin of error for the data collected is +/- 4.9 % for a 400 response survey for the data analyzed in its entirety with a 95% confidence level; meaning that we can be 95% sure that if every resident of the State with working telephone numbers who have at least one member who has voted in at least two of the last four local or state elections was actually surveyed, the results would vary by no more than 4.9% in either direction.

The survey sample used was a computer generated random list derived from a database of all households within the State of Alaska with working telephone numbers who have at least one member who has voted in at least two of the last four local or state elections. The sample frame was designed to accurately reflect the actual population percentages.

Respondents were screened to confirm they were over 18 and each household was attempted at least four times over a period of several days to account for non-response bias. Data was analyzed utilizing SPSS Quancept Software. Interviews were conducted by trained staff with on-site supervision utilizing state of the art computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). Random interviews were monitored to assure quality control measures were followed. Dialing results were analyzed daily to assure statistically accurate distribution of call disposition in order to account for “non-response” variables.

Survey Results

To view the results of other past surveys click here

In this survey 400 respondents across the State of Alaska were asked about their opinions of Sarah Palin and Sean Parnell.

The following question was paid for and released by Hays Research Group, and not done on behalf of any individual, candidate, or group.

Question 1

Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin?  And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?

Very positive 120/400 30.0%
Somewhat positive 67/400 16.8%
Total positive (very+somewhat) 187/400 46.8%
Somewhat negative 65/400 16.2%
Very negative 125/400 31.2%
Total negative (very+somewhat) 190/400 47.5%
No Opinion 18/400 4.5%
Don’t Know the person 5/400 1.2%
Refused 0/400 0%

Click here and add your email address to our mailing list and receive Statewide Survey results in your mailbox every month.

Question 2

Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sean Parnell?  And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?

Very positive 104/400 26.0%
Somewhat positive 162/400 40.5%
Total positive (very+somewhat) 268/400 66.5%
Somewhat negative 22/400 5.5%
Very negative 9/400 2.2%
Total negative (very+somewhat) 31/400 7.8%
No Opinion 72/400 18.0%
Don’t Know the person 31/400 7.8%
Refused 0/400 0%

This survey was conducted among households with at least one member who has voted in at least 2 of the last 4 state or local elections within the State of Alaska.  The survey was fielded on July 29th-30th, 2009.  400 respondents were contacted by telephone for the survey.  The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9% with a 95% confidence interval.

Hays Research

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